The Ballon d'Or 2025 gala is held this Monday at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris and everything points to an unprecedented scenario. The power of nominations of PSG, far from being an advantage, threatens to become its great weakness against the concentration of azulgrana supports.
The Ballon d'Or voting system —with 100 journalists from the top 100 FIFA-ranked countries— has revealed a unique phenomenon that could mark this year's edition.
Despite having nine nominated players, Paris Saint-Germain faces a possible “tragedy of the electoral commons” that disperses its support, while Fútbol Club Barcelona concentrates the majority of votes in its great jewel: Lamine Yamal.
How the Ballon d'Or voting system works
The 100 selected journalists must cast 10 hierarchical votes with a points system: 15 units for the first, 12 for the second, 10 for the third, and so on until awarding one point to the tenth. The winner is the player who accumulates the most points after the global count.
Each of the selected journalists must cast 10 votes that distribute points: 15 units for 1st, 12 for 2nd, 10 for 3rd, 8 for 4th, 7 for 5th, 5 for 6th, 4 for 7th, 3 for 8th, 2 for 9th and 1 for 10th.
France Football, organizer of the award, recalls that the main criteria for the votes are:
- Individual performance
- Collective achievements
- Fair play.
A balance that usually rewards both regularity and leadership within a team.
The PSG paradox: nine nominees, fewer real options
The Parisian club has managed to place up to nine players among the candidates for the Ballon d'Or: Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Achraf Hakimi, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Désiré Doué, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Vitinha and Fabián Ruiz.
However, this apparent strength poses a strategic problem: each journalist distributes their votes among compatriots or players of cultural affinity, thus diluting the individual strength of each candidate.
For example, a French journalist can distribute points between Dembélé and Doué, while a Portuguese journalist will divide them between Vitinha, Neves and Mendes. The result is a significant flow of votes for PSG as a whole, but insufficient for a player to overcome the necessary barrier of concentrated support.
Vote dispersion:
The Barça case: total concentration on Lamine Yamal
In contrast, FC Barcelona arrives with fewer nominees, but with a clear phenomenon: the concentration of support in Lamine Yamal. The young forward, a great revelation of the season, monopolizes the majority of votes from Spain and much of Europe, thanks to his media and sporting impact.
In a simulation carried out with the pattern of cultural affinities, Yamal would receive up to 65% of the pro-Barcelona votes, which translates into approximately 260 points. A figure higher than that of the best positioned of PSG, which would barely reach 150.
The PSG's “electoral tragedy”
The concept recalls the “tragedy of the commons”: by having too many nominated players from the same club, the supports cannibalize each other. Thus, although PSG could gather about 600 global points among all its players, none would individually manage to surpass the azulgrana leader.
"On the contrary, the concentration of votes makes Lamine Yamal an almost unbeatable rival"
In mathematical terms: PSG distributes an average of 67 votes per player, while Yamal could exceed 260 on his own, a difference of more than 100 units compared to his Parisian pursuer.
An outcome that favors Barça
The paradox is clear: the more nominees PSG has, the more difficult it is for one of them to be crowned as the best player in the world. Meanwhile, Barça concentrates all hope on a single player called to mark an era. Lamine Yamal not only benefits from the support of the Spanish press, but also from a growing international recognition.
If this trend is confirmed, the Paris gala could experience a historic night for Barcelona fans, with a triumph that would reinforce the global projection of its great star and consolidate the strategy of the Catalan club in its process of generational renewal.
This Monday, September 22, Paris will once again be the center of the football world. And there it could be confirmed that, despite the avalanche of PSG nominees, the concentration in Lamine Yamal could turn Barça into the big favorite.
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