Far from any speculation, Lamine Yamal's favoritism in the Ballon d'Or 2025 is sustained by his own merits thanks to a unique combination of sporting, media and emotional factors.
And despite the theoretical advantage of Dembélé, there are clear signs that warn that the Barcelona star is also a serious candidate to be crowned in Paris.
1. Massive leak with concrete figures
The most powerful trigger has been the leak replicated by Pablo Giralt, which places Lamine as the winner with 805 points, just five more than Ousmane Dembélé. The numerical specificity and its global viralization reinforce the veracity of the information.
"On social media, the Argentine journalist, Pablo Giralt, published a photo where you can see a list of 10 players nominated for the Ballon d'Or and it would be in the order of the winner to the top 10. In the leaked list, the winner would be Lamine Yamal."
Faced with the controversy generated, France Football has assured that the winner of the Ballon d'Or will only be revealed at the official ceremony, not before, reducing credibility to the leak. However, there are very powerful indicators that could sustain its veracity.
✅ Multiple independent sources have replicated the same information
✅ Trending topic for 48 consecutive hours
✅ Numerical specificity (805 vs 800) suggests real internal source
2. The family signal: 20 confirmed companions
Lamine Yamal will travel to Paris with 20 family members. An unusual movement that reflects the confidence of his environment in the player's possibilities. Historically, only confirmed winners organize deployments of such magnitude.
Behavior analysis:
✅ Extraordinary logistics: Nobody organizes 20 family members without certainty
✅ Contrasts brutally with basic confirmations from other candidates
✅ Historical behavior: Only safe winners bring massive family
3. Historical narrative during the voting period
With just 18 years old, Lamine Yamal was presented as the youngest possible winner of the Ballon d'Or. During the voting process, his story captured international attention as a symbol of generational renewal after Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
✅ Impact on voting journalists:
✅ Perfect story for international media
✅ Future of world football represented
✅ Generational renewal after the Messi-Cristiano era
✅ Superior global media coverage during voting
4. Concentration of Barça votes versus PSG dispersion
Fútbol Club Barcelona had only four nominees, which allowed most journalists to concentrate their support on Yamal. In contrast, the nine PSG players divided votes among themselves, weakening their individual options.
Vote dispersion analysis:
✅ Pro-Barcelona journalists concentrated votes mainly on Yamal
✅ Pro-PSG journalists distributed among 9 different candidates
✅ Yamal undisputed leader of the Barcelona project during voting
✅ Fatal PSG dispersion identified since August
5. Impactful track record and individual performance
The winger closed the season with a national treble (LaLiga, Copa and Supercopa) and 18 goals in his first full season as a professional. A performance that meets the three official criteria of the award: individual excellence, collective titles and fair play.
Balanced combination:
✅ Criterion #1 Ballon d'Or: Exceptional individual performance
✅ Criterion #2 Ballon d'Or: Important collective titles
✅ Criterion #3 Ballon d'Or: Fair play and projection
6. Maximum global media projection
During the voting period, Yamal starred on international covers, led trends on social networks and consolidated as the face of the new generation of football. His media impact even surpassed Mbappé's in that decisive stretch.
Indicators that journalists saw:
✅ Weekly international covers
✅ Transgenerational phenomenon on social networks
✅ Perfect ambassador of football for the new generation
✅ Unprecedented media coverage for his age
7. The voting system favors him
The 100 journalists who vote look for transcendent stories and figures that represent the future of football. The age, narrative and performance of Lamine Yamal fit perfectly into that profile.
Perfect profile for voters:
✅ Unique story: There has never been such a strong 18-year-old candidate
✅ Global impact: Transcends cultural borders
✅ Guaranteed future: Investment in the next decade of football
✅ Necessary renewal: Generational change post Messi-Cristiano
8. Perfect temporal momentum
In August and September, Yamal experienced his absolute media peak, with the fresh treble and growing international recognition. His direct rivals arrived with less inertia or with shortcomings in collective titles.
Favorable timeline:
✅ August-September: Yamal maximum world trending
✅ Barcelona treble recently achieved and Dembélé still did not have the unanimous support of experts
✅ Mbappé penalized for a season without titles with Madrid
9. Historical precedent of young winners
The Ballon d'Or has rewarded unique narratives on other occasions, such as Ronaldo (21), Owen (22), Messi (21), Ronaldinho or Kaká at 25 years old. With Yamal, voters would have the opportunity to reward a talent of just 18, consolidating a change of era.
Historical pattern:
✅ Voters look for renewal when there is an exceptional young candidate
✅ Unique narratives surpass obvious favorites
✅ Global media impact weighs more than pure statistics
✅ Future projection attracts visionary journalists
10. Consistency with all previous signals
The leak with exact figures, the unprecedented family mobilization and the international narrative align all the signals in the same direction: Lamine Yamal could be the number one favorite. The absence of PSG at the gala is irrelevant, as the votes are closed and their advantage was built weeks ago.
Convergence of signals:
- Specific leak with exact numbers
- Unprecedented family behavior
- Sustained media momentum
- Absence of similar signals in other candidates
Conclusion: Lamine is a candidate for the Ballon d'Or on his own merits
Beyond rumors and speculations, Lamine Yamal could be a favorite for the 2025 Ballon d'Or for real sporting and media merits. This Monday's gala in Paris can mark a before and after in the history of football, with Barcelona fans prepared to celebrate their new idol.
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