The Champions League Begins! Barcelona, 5th Favorite for the Title According to Opta
Published New:16/09/2025 - 02:25h
Updated New:18/09/2025 - 08:47h
Opta's Supercomputer gives Hansi Flick's Barça an 8.51% chance of winning the 25/26 Champions League. Liverpool starts as the main candidate
The UEFA Champions League 2025/26 kicks off its league phase this Tuesday, and the Opta Supercomputer has updated its predictions for the 71st edition of the tournament. FC Barcelona starts as the main candidate for the title among the four participating Spanish clubs, with an 8.51% chance of lifting the 'big-eared' trophy on May 30, 2026, at the Puskás Arena in Budapest.
Hansi Flick's team is the fifth favorite and comes from reaching the semifinals last season, staying a couple of minutes away from overcoming the historic tie against Inter Milan (7-6 on aggregate). Curiously, neither of the two finalists from 24/25 appears among the top two favorites to win the Champions League.
According to Opta, the 2025/26 Champions League will have an English final
Liverpool, with a 20.12% chance, is the main candidate. The 'Reds' are the current Premier League champions and closed a record summer market, with almost 500 million euros invested in signings. Aleksander Isak (145 M€) and Florian Wirtz (125 M€) are their star reinforcements, along with Hugo Ekitiké (95 M€) and Milos Kerkez (47 M€).
Behind the team led by Arne Slot appears Arsenal, with a 16.33% chance of being champion for the first time in history. The 'Gunners' fell in the 'semis' last season against the champion Paris Saint-Germain. The podium of favorites is completed by the current champion, Paris Saint-Germain.
Luis Enrique's team comes from winning the treble in 24/25 and has an 11.09% chance of retaining the title, something that only Real Madrid and AC Milan have achieved in the last 35 years. Behind the Parisian team, strangely, appears Manchester City.
The 'sky blue' team, despite its very poor 24/25 (without titles, falling in the round of 16 of the Champions League), is the fourth candidate with an 8.65% chance of winning its second Champions League. Pep Guardiola's team broke the curse in Europe in 2023, after defeating Inter in the final (1-0).
𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 2025-26
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) September 15, 2025
Our UEFA Champions League stats hub has live Opta supercomputer predictions, which will update on every day of the season.
Check out the latest projections ahead of the 2025-26 season start tomorrow...
Behind Barça, in sixth place, is Chelsea. The team led by Enzo Maresca took a leap after winning the Club World Cup by thrashing PSG in the final (3-0), in addition to being the current champion of the Conference League. The 'Blues' start with a 6.89% chance of winning their third trophy.
In that sense, three of the six main candidates for the title are English. The Premier League has dominated the Champions League in the 21st century, with 5 trophies in the hands of Liverpool (2), Chelsea (2), and Manchester United (1). To this are added 3 finals between English teams (2008, 2019, and 2021) and at least one semifinalist in most editions (with the exception of 2003, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2024).
According to Opta's predictions, the 2026 Budapest final would be Liverpool-Arsenal, with the 'Reds' as favorites. The Merseyside team has played three finals in seven years (2018, 2019, and 2022), winning one against Tottenham in 2019.
The five favorites to win the 25/26 Champions League according to Opta
- Liverpool: 20.12% (34.01% chance of reaching the final).
- Arsenal: 16.33% (28.57% chance of reaching the final).
- Paris Saint-Germain: 11.09% (21.07% chance of reaching the final).
- Manchester City: 8.65% (16.91% chance of reaching the final).
- FC Barcelona: 8.51% (16.98% chance of reaching the final).
Barcelona, fifth favorite in the Champions League: What about Real Madrid?
The TOP-10 of title contenders is completed by Real Madrid (6.20%), Bayern Munich (4.62%), Newcastle (2.98%), and Inter Milan (2.14%). The presence of the 'Magpies' is very striking, even more so considering that, according to Opta's Supercomputer, Eddie Howe's team will have to play the round of 16 repechage.
The truth is that, at the start of the league stage, Barcelona is ahead of Madrid with a 2.31% higher chance of being champion. The 'Culés' also have the fourth-highest percentage of chances of reaching the final (16.98%), behind PSG (21.07%).
Xabi Alonso's team, on the other hand, only has a 12.75% chance of returning to the final, an instance they won in 2022 and 2024. Barça, for its part, is looking for its first final since 2015, but the current form of both teams and the league stage draw tip the balance in favor of the Catalans.
- 📌 YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN: All the information about the 20/26 Champions League
Opta's analysis methodology: algorithms and recent data
Opta's supercomputer takes into account the following factors for the realization of its analyses:
- The recent performance of each club in European competitions;
- The recent performance of each club in local competitions;
The results are achieved thanks to the Opta Power Ranking, assigning a value to each team derived from the analysis criteria and their recent results, where the value of the strongest team in the world is Liverpool with 100 points.
The league phase starts this Tuesday, with Real Madrid and Athletic in action
Real Madrid debuts this Tuesday at home against Marseille (21:00 CEST), while Barça will do the same on Thursday at the same time, at Newcastle's ground. Both teams may face each other from the round of 16 repechage. However, according to Opta, the two giants will advance directly to the next phase this year.
Hansi Flick's team scored 19 points last season, a couple less than Liverpool (21). This year, the expected average for the 'Azulgranas' is 15 points, with which they would finish in fourth place in the general table. Madrid, which was eleventh last year, would finish seventh in 25/26, with 14 points.
In addition to Madrid, Athletic also debuts on Tuesday, at home against Arsenal (18:15 CEST). The Basques return to the Champions League for the first time since 2014 and debut at San Mamés against the second big favorite according to Opta. On Wednesday, Atlético de Madrid will do the same against none other than Liverpool at Anfield (21:00 CEST).
- 👉 Check out the official calendar of the 2025/26 Champions League for FC Barcelona on FCBN
