Predictions: Opta gives Arsenal and Barça as favorites in the Champions League

Opta's Supercomputer has updated its predictions for the final stretch of the UEFA Champions League. Before the semi-finals, Arsenal remains the main candidate for the title, followed by FC Barcelona.

The advanced statistics of the Supercomputer's calculations give the team led by Mikel Arteta a 31.3% chance of winning their first Champions League, for which they must eliminate Paris Saint-Germain in the 'semis'.

Luis Enrique's team, for now, are the third favorite team to fight for the title in Munich, while Barça, in principle, would be Arsenal's rival in the final, re-editing the match that both teams played in 2006 (Culés victory by 2-1).

📌Barça, second favorite to win the Champions League

And Hansi Flick's team, before the first leg of the semi-finals, has a 27.4% chance of lifting the 'orejona' in Munich on May 31. With this, they are the second favorite to win what would be their sixth European crown.

After their defeat against Borussia Dortmund in the return leg of the quarter-finals (3-1), the Culés were the semi-finalist with the fewest options for the title (21.8%). Now, they have regained ground after their recent victories in LaLiga and the Copa del Rey.

Why are Opta's predictions so variable? The Supercomputer gives its predictions by simulating the competition 10,000 times, based on the odds of the betting market and the Opta Power Rankings, according to the historical and recent results of each team.

This explains why Inter Milan, which after the quarter-final ties, was the second candidate for the title (25.5%), is now the least favorite team to be champion, with only 19.2%.

The Italians have 3 defeats in a row between league and cup, which directly affects their chances of winning the Champions League. Simone Inzaghi's team, however, reach the semi-finals with only one defeat in 12 appearances in the tournament.

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⚽The favorites to win the Champions League, according to Opta

FC Barcelona players in the match against Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League 2024-25

For its part, Paris Saint-Germain maintains 22% favoritism before the first leg of the 'semis' against Arsenal in London. The 'gunners' have managed to remain the main candidate according to Opta after eliminating Real Madrid in the quarter-finals.

At the moment, Barcelona is the team with the best offense in the tournament (37 goals in 12 matches), while Inter boasts the best defense with only 5 goals conceded.

PSG is the only semi-finalist that played the 'play off' to qualify for the round of 16 and Arsenal, like Inter, has only lost one match on their way to 'semis' (precisely in Italy against the 'nerazzurri, 1-0).

In addition, Arsenal and PSG did face each other in the league phase, with victory for the English in London (2-0). Paris only won 1 of its first 5 matches and is also the team with the most defeats (5).

🏆Favorites to win the Champions League according to Opta: 04/28/2025

1. Arsenal (England): 31.3%
2. FC Barcelona (Spain): 27.4%
3. Paris Saint-Germain (France): 22%
4. Inter Milan (Italy): 19.2%