Surprise? Opta predicts a more difficult Champions League for Barça and Atlético than Real Madrid

Real Madrid could have an easier path than FC Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid in the league phase of the UEFA Champions League 2025/26, according to the analysis carried out by an Opta supercomputer after the league phase draw held in Monaco.

According to the predictions of 'The Analyst', culés and 'colchoneros' will face a more complicated route to the round of 16, while 'blancos' will have a league with fewer obstacles. However, on paper, the 'merengue' team seems to have more difficult matches than the azulgrana team.

The study, based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and recent performance data, simulates the results of each matchday and projects the probabilities of qualification for the Spanish teams.

Demanding rivals, but balanced calendar for Real Madrid

According to Opta, Real Madrid would have an initial advantage thanks to a calendar that, despite having heavyweight rivals such as Manchester City, Liverpool and Juventus, also presents manageable matches against teams with lower performance in recent seasons such as Olympiakos, Marseille, Monaco, Benfica and the debutant Kairat Almaty.

With these rivals, the 'Casa Blanca' will have a difficulty of 90%. In contrast, FC Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid will face more competitive and balanced rivals such as Inter Milan, Liverpool, Eintracht Frankfurt, Arsenal, Bodo, PSV, Union SG and Galatasaray in the case of the 'colchoneros'.

By facing several teams that have gone far in the past Champions League, such as Arsenal ('semis') and PSV (quarters), Diego Simeone's team register a difficulty of 92.1%, the highest average among the Spanish clubs.

Barça, on the other hand, will face the current champion Paris Saint Germain (home), Chelsea FC (away), Club Brugge (away), Olympiakos (home), Slavia Prague (away), Copenhagen (home), and Newcastle (away). This gives Hansi Flick's team an average difficulty of 90.9%, almost one percentage point above Real Madrid.

In contrast, Villarreal (89.6%) would have, according to Opta, the most affordable path to qualify in the league. The 'Yellow Submarine' must face Tottenham, Manchester City, Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Ajax, Copenhagen and Pafos.

Behind Atlético is Athletic, with a difficulty of 91.6%. Ernesto Valverde's team will seek to get into the round of 16 by overcoming PSG, Dortmund, Arsenal, Atalanta, Sporting CP, Slavia Prague, Qarabag and Newcastle.

Methodology of Opta's analysis: algorithms and recent data.

Opta's supercomputer takes into account a series of factors to carry out its analyses:

1. The recent performance of each club in European competitions;
2. The recent performance of each club in local competitions;

The results are achieved thanks to the Opta Power Ranking, assigning a value to each team derived from the analysis criteria and their recent results, where the value of the strongest team in the world is Liverpool with 100 points.

Taking into account the valuations of each team, the difficulty they have in their calendar for the league phase is averaged. The official calendar will be known this Saturday, August 30.

In the case of Real Madrid, they will have to face the last champions of the Premier League and a Juventus that has historically been competitive, however, they will have matches with teams that are currently not relevant in European competitions and do not have large squads, as is the case of Olympiakos, Marseille and Kairat.

Ratio of opponents for LaLiga clubs in Champions League:

1. Atletico de Madrid: 92.1
2. Athletic Club: 91.6
3. FC Barcelona: 90.9
4. Real Madrid: 90
5. Villarreal: 89.6

Bayern and PSG, again harmed by the Champions League draw

On the contrary, other teams that have been badly affected after the draw are Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain, which according to the difficulty range of the draw are the ones that will have the most difficult matches.

The Bavarians will face rivals with an average difficulty of 92.9%, the highest among the 36 teams in the league. Behind them is Paris, with 92.7%. The podium is completed by PSV Eindhoven (92.6%), while Barça appears in 15th place. Atlético is sixth, Bilbao 11th and Madrid 25th.

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