Champions League: The scenarios that Barça manages for the closure of the Liguilla phase

The FC Barcelona will face Atalanta from Bergamo in a match valid for the eighth round of the UEFA Champions League. In this encounter, the azulgrana team will face this Italian team for the first time, and the result of this duel will be key to determine the position the Catalan team will finish in this group stage.

This first round will have an exciting and uncertain conclusion until the last moment. Being a unified matchday, with all 18 matches played simultaneously, a lot of movement is expected in the standings.

⚽️ Matchday 8 is here!

Dramatic conclusion incoming 🍿#UCL pic.twitter.com/YOFnx8AIi2

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 29, 2025

Currently, FC Barcelona occupies the second place in the overall standings with a total of 18 points. In this first phase, the Barcelona squad could end up in a position ranging from first to sixth,  but no lower. If Atalanta, currently seventh, beats Barça, they would only reach a total of 17 points, which would not be enough to surpass the Catalans.

What needs to happen for FC Barcelona to finish in first place in the group?

Analyzing possible scenarios, FC Barcelona could only finish in first place if they defeat Atalanta, thereby reaching 21 points. At the same time, Liverpool would have to lose to PSV Eindhoven at the Philips Stadion, which would lead to both the Catalans and the 'Reds' finishing the first phase with 21 points, giving the club from the City of Condal the first spot due to a better 'goal average' than the English.

And if Barça only manages a draw against 'La Dea'?

In case of a draw against Atalanta, FC Barcelona would finish the group stage with 19 points, maintaining a lead to keep the second position. To take the second spot from the Catalan team, Arsenal or Inter Milan, third and fourth with 16 points respectively, would have to win their matches (the 'Gunners' are playing against Girona in Montilivi, and the 'Nerazzurri' against AS Monaco at the Giuseppe Meazza) by a sufficient goal difference.

However, victory alone would not be enough for Inter and Arsenal to catch up with Barça, since in both cases, either of the two teams that manages a win would reach 19 points, thus tying with the Catalan team. In this situation, the 'goal average' would come into play, meaning that the Londoners would need to win their match against the Girona team by a margin of more than four goals. 

Inter Milan has a much tougher challenge, as in addition to defeating their opponent, they would need to surpass FC Barcelona by defeating the Monegasques by a nine-goal margin.

From this, it is clear that FC Barcelona, even with a draw against Atalanta, cannot drop out of the 'top 4'. Reaching 19 points, Atlético Madrid, in fifth place, would not reach them, as they currently have 15 points and could only reach 18 if they win their match against RB Salzburg, still not surpassing the Barcelona team.

And if FC Barcelona falls to Atalanta?

In a third scenario, if FC Barcelona were to be defeated, that loss would be crucial for their aspirations to reach the 'top 2' or 'top 4'. Finishing with 18 points, maintaining their current score, would allow Inter Milan and Arsenal to push them down to fourth place if they win their respective matches.

Falling to fourth place, FC Barcelona could even drop to fifth or sixth. However, this scenario is more complex, as if Barça remains at 18 points, Atlético Madrid and AC Milan could surpass them by reaching the same number of points if they win their matches.

In this case, to surpass the Catalan team, they would need to rely on 'goal average', where the 'colchoneros' have a disadvantage of 10 goals and the Italians 11. To surpass FC Barcelona, they would be required to win by a significant margin in their respective matches (it would also help if the Blaugranas lose by a significant goal difference). A tough challenge, but not impossible.

Possible rivals in the round of 16

Once the unified matchday concludes, FC Barcelona will also know their four possible rivals in the round of 16. If they finish in first or second place, their opponent in the round of 16 will be one of the teams that finishes in 15th, 16th, 17th, or 18th place.

Now, if they finish in third or fourth position, they would face the 13th, 14th, 19th, or 20th ranked team. On the other hand, if they finish in fifth or sixth place, they would face the 11th, 12th, 21st, or 22nd ranked team.