Jugadores del FC Barcelona en el duelo ante el Borussia Dortmund en la UEFA Champions League 2024 25

BARÇA, GOING FOR EVERYTHING AGAINST THE LISBOETS

Champions: Would Barcelona secure their place in the round of 16 with a victory against Benfica

Published:21/01/2025 - 19:02h

Updated:21/01/2025 - 19:06h

FC Barcelona faces a challenging match against SL Benfica in the UEFA Champions League. This commitment could mean that the Barça team is one step away from securing their place in the round of 16

Calendar of FC Barcelona

The FC Barcelona will face the commitment against SL Benfica, valid for the seventh round of the UEFA Champions League 2024-25, with a clear objective in mind: to secure a positive result that allows them to advance, or even mathematically secure, their passage to the knockout stages of this tournament. As is widely known, a new league format has been introduced this year.

First of all, it should be noted that the culé team already has at least one spot guaranteed in the 'play-offs' for the round of 16. With their 15 points accumulated so far, the Catalan team is in second place on the table.

In the worst-case scenario, they would not fall below 24th place, which is the last spot that grants qualification to the 'play-offs' and is currently held by Dinamo Zagreb with eight points. Considering that there are only two matches left to play, even if Barcelona does not earn points in those matches, they would still have an advantage over the 24th spot.

The Catalan team seeks to secure a position at the top of the standings

The FC Barcelona has the option to qualify directly for the round of 16 without going through the 'play-offs' if they achieve a positive result against SL Benfica. This seems very likely according to the statistics. In the event of a victory against the Lisbon team, Barça would reach 18 points, consolidating their place in second on the table.

This would put them out of reach for most teams, as those below 13th place (with 11 points or less) would not be able to catch up. However, there are still at least four teams that could match Barcelona on points and push them out of the top eight: AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, and Atlético de Madrid, all currently with 12 points and could reach 18 if they win their next two matches.

Why would the culé club 'virtually' secure its qualification for the knockout stage with a victory against the Lisbon team?

Although it seems that a victory would not guarantee Barcelona's qualification, goal difference is a crucial factor. Fortunately, the Catalan team currently has a notable goal difference of +14.

Even if the six teams fighting for the top eight spots earned the six remaining points and surpassed the 18 points that Barcelona would achieve with a victory against Benfica, the team from the City of Condal would still be in eighth place thanks to its goal difference. It’s worth recalling that in case of a tie on points, the tie-breaker criterion would be goal average, where the culés also have an advantage.

For any team to cut that goal difference, they would have to see their rivals win by large margins. At the same time, Barcelona would have to lose by significant scores. With this in mind, it can be asserted that Barça, with a victory, could be mathematically qualified directly for the knockout stage of the competition.

And what if FC Barcelona draws against SL Benfica?

If they manage to draw and earn just one point, they would reach 16 points. In this scenario, qualification would not be completely assured, leaving the task to be completed in the next match against Atalanta, although it would set them on the right path.