Dembélé vs. Raphinha: Will the Champions League decide the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Raphinha has Ousmane Dembélé, for the moment, as his main rival on the road to the 2025 Ballon d'Or. Although the FC Barcelona winger's records are superior and he has already secured the Pichichi of the UEFA Champions League, the Paris Saint-Germain '10' has options to win the treble with Luis Enrique's team this year.

Rapha has 32 goals and 23 assists with Barça, while the 'Mosquito' has 33 goals and 13 assists with PSG. Although the '11' of Barcelona can also close the year with three titles (League, Copa del Rey and Spanish Super Cup), the Vernon native has already secured Ligue 1 and can add the French Cup and the Champions League to his record.

⚽Pedri, Lamine and Lewandowski also present their candidacy

Pedri and Lamine Yamal, celebrating Barça's 1-0 in the Copa final

In Barcelona, three other candidates for the Ballon d'Or are Pedri González, Lamine Yamal and Robert Lewandowski. The Pole has 40 goals in the season and hopes to win his second Pichichi in Spain, while the midfielder and the winger have been the best so far in 2025, displaying all their magic in the team led by Hansi Flick.

Lamine, meanwhile, has 15 goals and 21 assists, while Pedri has 6 goals and 7 assists. Both completed a remarkable Champions League with Hansi Flick's team, with the Mataró native being the best in the 'semis' alongside Inter goalkeeper Yann Sommer. 

In that sense, both the youth player and the Canary Islander will be strong candidates for the Ballon d'Or, regardless of Barcelona's elimination against Inter. Barça is on the verge of winning its 28th League title, where Pedri will probably be chosen as MVP and Lamine as best U-23 player.

🏆The Champions League, a determining factor for the Ballon d'Or?

Ousmane Dembélé with his fists raised celebrating a goal with PSG

However, both Dembélé and Lautaro Martínez (Inter) may have an advantage if they manage to lift the Champions League trophy in Munich on May 31. In addition, both will be able to improve their statistics in the Club World Cup, which is also included in the 2024/25 season.

The same is true for Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian is the one with the most similar records to Raphinha (33 goals and 23 assists in 49 games), but he only won the Premier League with Liverpool and, in the Champions League, he completed a very discreet performance, being eliminated in the round of 16 against PSG without scoring any goal or assist in the tie.

However, you don't have to go far to realize that the Champions League is not always a key factor in winning the Ballon d'Or. In 2024, Vinicius Jr. was left empty-handed despite winning LaLiga and the 'orejona' with Real Madrid.

The same thing happened to Franck Ribery in 2013. The Frenchman won the treble with Bayern Munich, but FIFA and France Football chose Cristiano Ronaldo as the best of that year despite not winning anything with Real Madrid.

In 2020, Robert Lewandowski experienced a similar disappointment, but due to the suspension of the award ceremony due to the covid-19 pandemic. Thus, we will have to wait and see what the evaluation criteria will be for the 2025 votes, a year with a much more extensive calendar due to the dispute of the Club World Cup and the change of format in the Champions League.

📌The main candidates for the 2025 Ballon d'Or