Can Barça be champion in the Clásico? The keys to win LaLiga

FC Barcelona and Real Madrid define this Sunday, May 11 in Montjuïc (16:15 CEST) their options to keep the title of LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25. Hansi Flick's team arrives with a 4-point advantage in the lead and have everything in their hands to secure the third title of the season.

So far, Barça has dominated the three Clásicos played in League (0-4 on matchday 11), Cup (3-2 in the final) and Spanish Super Cup (2-5 in the final) with authority and is on the verge of making history by winning four consecutive duels in the same season against the 'merengues'.

In addition, in Montjuïc, the 'culés' have not lost since December 21, 2024 (1-2 against Atlético) and this year they have only drawn against Atalanta and Inter (2-2 and 3-3 in Champions) and Betis (1-1 in League) in 15 matches in which they have 12 wins and 3 draws.

🏆Barça will secure the League title if they win the Clásico and the Catalan derby

Lamine Yamal disputing a ball with Ferland Mendy in the Madrid-Barça (0-4)

In that sense, Flick's team is 2 wins away from sealing the League title without depending on any other result. Barça will be 7 points ahead of Madrid if they defeat them in the Clásico, with only three matchdays (9 points) to play.

A victory against the 'Casa Blanca', plus another in the Catalan derby against Espanyol, will allow the 'culés' to celebrate their 28th League title regardless of what happens in the rest of the matches.

The difference between both teams would be 7 points with only 6 points to play for, added to the enormous difference in the direct confrontation and in the goal average favorable to a Barça that practically liquidated the hand-to-hand after the 0-4 of the first round in the Santiago Bernabéu. 

🟢Four points in the next two matchdays will be enough to win LaLiga if...

Lamine Yamal in the match between FC Barcelona and RCD Espanyol in LaLiga EA Sports 2024-25

However, a draw and a victory can also give the League title to Barça. A Catalan victory in the Clásico will leave the 'merengues' 7 points behind the lead. If the 'culés' draw in the Catalan derby on matchday 36, but Madrid does not add the three points against Mallorca, Barcelona will be champion with two matchdays to play.

In addition, if Madrid only rescues a draw in the Clásico and fails on matchday 36, it will also leave the title served to those of Hansi Flick. And if Barça adds a point on Sunday, they will maintain their 4-point advantage in the lead.

This, added to a victory against Espanyol and a draw in the Madrid-Mallorca, will seal the 'azugrana' title. Otherwise, we will have to wait until matchday 37 to define the title.

❌What if Barça falls against Madrid in the Clásico in Montjuïc?

Kylian Mbappé in the match against FC Barcelona

Another scenario, much more complex, has to do with a victory of Real Madrid against Barcelona in Montjuïc. Those of Carlo Ancelotti would cut distances to be only 1 point of the 'culés', but the 'azulgrana' team would still depend on themselves to be champion.

With three matchdays to play, Madrid would be forced to win everything and link a Catalan failure in the final stretch of the tournament. Barça, on the other hand, will secure the title if they add the remaining 9 points or, even, in case of equality of points with Madrid.

For example, if the 'blancos' draw on matchday 36 and Barça loses, both would be left with the same amount of points. However, unless Madrid scores by 5 or more goals in the Clásico, they will have a disadvantage due to the direct confrontation, the first tie-breaker in LaLiga if two clubs finish the tournament with the same amount of points.

Similarly, Hansi Flick's team has an advantage over Madrid in the goal difference, since the 'culés' have, for the moment, a +58, with 22 goals in favor more than the 'merengues' (+36).

📌The League calendar for Barça and Madrid after the Clásico

Pedri González during the Barça-Athletic (2-1)

For Barça, the calendar after the Clásico includes the visit to Cornellà next Thursday 15 against an Espanyol very close to securing permanence and to whom they already defeated in the first round (3-1).

Afterwards, on Sunday 18, it is time to receive a Villarreal in full fight to get into the next Champions League. For the moment, those of Marcelino García are fifth with 58 points, one more than Betis (6th) and three from Athletic (4th). In the first round, the 'culés' crushed the 'Yellow Submarine' in their field (1-5).

And, finally, on matchday 38, Flick's Barcelona will visit Athletic in San Mamés on Sunday, May 25. The Basques also fell at the beginning of the tournament against the Catalans (2-1) and arrive at the final stretch with their arms down after the tremendous 'stick' that meant falling crushed in 'semis' of the Europa League against Manchester United (7-1 on aggregate), with which the dream of winning their first European title at home vanished (the final is played in San Mamés).

For Real Madrid, on the other hand, the calendar includes two matches at home and one away. First, the 'merengues' receive Mallorca on Wednesday 14 on matchday 36 and, on Sunday 18, they will visit Sevilla at the Sánchez Pizjuán. On the last matchday, the 'blancos' will receive Real Sociedad.

Understanding that these are three rivals from the middle/lower zone of the table and with a very irregular performance this 2025, the Madrid calendar, without a doubt, looks more affordable than that of Barça. However, everything depends on the result of the Clásico, where one and the other team can come out strengthened in case of winning to go for the League title.

⚽Matches of FC Barcelona:

1. Espanyol vs Barça (matchday 36 in Cornellà) - Thursday, May 15 at 21:30.
2. Barça vs Villarreal (matchday 37 in Montjuïc) - Sunday, May 18 at 19:00.
3. Athletic vs Barça (matchday 38 in Bilbao) - Sunday, May 25 (to be defined).

⚽Matches of Real Madrid:

1. Real Madrid vs Mallorca (matchday 36 at the Bernabéu) - Wednesday, May 14 at 21:30.
2. Sevilla vs Real Madrid (matchday 37 in Seville). Sunday, May 18 at 19:00.
3. Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad (matchday 38 at the Bernabéu) - Sunday, May 25 (to be defined).

In FCBN we make a special follow-up of all the confrontations and determining data in the fight for the championship between the two greats of Spanish football. Don't miss a detail! LaLiga 24/25: The final Calendar that will decide the title between Barça and Real Madrid.