Opta updates its LaLiga 25/26 predictions: Will Barça be able to retain the trophy?

Published New:29/10/2025 - 01:00h

Updated New:29/10/2025 - 01:03h

Opta's Supercomputer updated its forecasts for the LaLiga 25/26 title after Barça's defeat in the Clásico (2-1). The Blaugrana team reduced their chances of retaining the trophy by 21.64%

FC Barcelona would no longer be the favorite to be crowned champion of LaLiga EA Sports 2025/26. At least not according to the predictions of Opta Analyst. The statistical system's supercomputer gives the Barça team a 24.86% chance of retaining the title obtained in 24/25.

At the beginning of the season, Barça was the main candidate for the title with a 46.5% chance. Real Madrid, meanwhile, was second with a 32.1% probability of being champion. After the 'merengue' victory in the Clásico (2-1), the white team now appears as the main favorite, with a high percentage (68.18%).

Hansi Flick's team has now seen its chances of lifting the trophy reduced by 21.64% compared to the initial forecast. After 10 matchdays, the difference is 5 points, still with the Clásico of the second round at Camp Nou (matchday 35) to be played.

Opta's prediction: Barça would finish LaLiga 25/26 with 8 fewer points

Opta Predictions - LaLiga 25/26 (October 2025)

According to Opta's Supercomputer, Barça, who already have a couple of defeats in the tournament, would finish LaLiga with only 80 points, 8 less than those obtained last season. Real Madrid, on the other hand, would be champion with 87 units.

On average, the last five La Liga champions needed at least 86 points to lift the trophy. Atlético and Real Madrid secured the title with that amount in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Barça, on the other hand, made 88 in 2023 and 2025. Los Blancos reached the maximum top of the last decade in 2024, with 95 units.

Opta completes the upper zone of the standings with Atlético (3rd), Villarreal (4th), Betis (5th), and Athletic (6th). Regarding the forecast prior to matchday 1, the only difference is the position of the 'verdiblancos' and the Basques. The 'lions' have entered a crisis with only one victory in the last 5 matches and have fallen to ninth place.

Check out the full LaLiga EA Sports 25/26 standings table on FCBN.

Barça Didn't Finish the First Half of LaLiga 24/25 as Favorites Either

For Hansi Flick's team, overcoming deficits and being surpassed by Real Madrid in the predictions is nothing new. The Azulgrana team began the second half of the 24/25 season 7 points behind the 'Casa Blanca'. Even so, they sealed the title with 2 matchdays to spare and a 4-point advantage.

The *culés* added up to 2 draws and 5 defeats in the first round, with up to 3 consecutive losses at home between November and December. Therefore, forecasts favored Madrid and Atlético in January, but Barça reversed its slump with a spectacular second round.

The team only lost one match (in MD37, already with the trophy in hand) and obtained 50 of 54 possible points between January and May. Hence, beyond Opta's analyses, there is full confidence in Barça's chances of winning their third La Liga title in the last 4 years.