Can Barça win the Champions? Opta names them as the big favorite

According to Opta's supercomputer, FC Barcelona is the team with the highest chances of lifting the UEFA Champions League trophy on May 31 in Munich. The model, which specializes in predicting the outcomes of each match based on the historical and current performance of each team, gives the Blaugrana a 20.4% chance of lifting the 'big-eared trophy' this season.

According to betting market odds and Opta's 'Power Ranking', Barça has an 80% chance of overcoming the quarter-final tie against Borussia Dortmund. Both teams already faced each other in the league phase, with a Catalan victory in Germany (2-3) thanks to goals from Ferran Torres (two goals) and Raphinha.

In the 'semis', the team managed by Hansi Flick would face the winner of the tie between Bayern Munich and Inter Milan, with a 41.5% probability in favor of the Catalans. Barça also defeated the Bavarian team in the group stage (4-1), while the last encounter against the 'Nerazzurri' was in the 22/23 season, in the group stage. The Italians won narrowly in Milan (1-0), while at Camp Nou the match ended in a draw (3-3).

Barça and PSG, favorites to reach the final in Munich

Behind Barça, as the main favorite to reach the final, is Paris Saint-Germain. Luis Enrique's team eliminated the league phase leader, Liverpool, in penalties (1-1 on aggregate, 4-1 on penalties) and has a 36% chance of being in Munich alongside Barça. However, the odds of the French achieving their first Champions title stand at 19.3%.

The third contender for the title, according to Opta's statistics, is Arsenal. The 'Gunners' have also never lifted the 'big-eared trophy' and have a 16.8% chance of making history this year and a 30.3% chance of reaching at least the final. Further back is one of Barça's potential rivals in the semi-finals, Inter. Simone Inzaghi's team has a 16.4% margin for the title and a 32.7% chance of reaching the decisive stage, something they last achieved a couple of seasons ago.

Madrid, fifth favorite in the Champions according to Opta

Real Madrid, on the other hand, appears as the fifth favorite to defend their Champions title. According to Opta, the 'Merengues' only have a 13.6% chance of winning their sixteenth Champions League, while their chances of reaching the final are 26%. Regarding the quarter-final duel against Arsenal, the probability favors the English (52.8% to 47.2%).

The other title contenders according to Opta's supercomputer are Bayern Munich (9.7%), Aston Villa (2.8%), and Borussia Dortmund (1%). Barça's next opponent has the least chance of reaching the final (4.5%), as they only have a 20% chance of eliminating the Blaugrana. The quarter-finals will be played from Tuesday, April 8 to Wednesday, April 16. Barça will play the first leg in Montjuïc.

⚽Opta's predictions for the final phase of the Champions