Opta 'condemns' FC Barcelona to Champions League playoff

FC Barcelona's draw in Belgium against Club Brugge (3-3) reduced their chances of qualifying for the round of 16 within the TOP-8 of the league phase. According to the predictive system of Opta's Supercomputer, with four matchdays remaining in the group stage, Barça would play in the playoffs in February by finishing in 9th place.

Hansi Flick's team is currently eleventh in the overall standings with 7 points. With the current format, only the top eight teams advance directly to the round of 16, while teams ranked from 9th to 24th will play a two-legged playoff in mid-February.

If Barça were to finish the league phase in 9th place, they would face the 24th-ranked team in the playoff. According to Opta, that team would be **Eintracht Frankfurt**, who currently occupy 23rd place with 4 points. The Supercomputer gives the Catalan team **14.80 expected points**, while the Germans would accumulate 8.99 units

Barça would have to win all their matches to equal their 24/25 points tally

Lamine Yamal celebrating his goal against Club Brugge

In 24/25, Barça finished the group stage with 19 points, the result of 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. This season, the team has already dropped 5 points with the defeat against PSG (1-2) and the draw in Bruges, meaning that to match their record from the previous season, they would have to win all four remaining matchdays.

Flick's team's calendar includes a visit to Chelsea on matchday 5, November 25. Subsequently, they host Eintracht on December 9. In January, the Catalans visit Slavia Prague (01/21) and host Copenhagen on the final date (01/29)

Last season, the blaugrana team won six consecutive matches to secure their qualification one matchday before the end of the league phase. In 25/26, **a winning streak against Chelsea, Eintracht, and Slavia** could also allow the Catalans to pave the way for their presence in the TOP-8 with 15 units.

And in the first campaign with the current format, 16 points were needed to be among the top eight in the standings (Aston Villa finished 8th with that amount). As for the playoff, the last-placed team (Club Brugge) accumulated 11 points. According to Opta, this year only 9 would be enough to enter the 'play-off' and 15 points to avoid it

The 8 qualified teams for the Champions League TOP-8, according to Opta

Opta Prediction - Champions League league phase 25/26. Source: Opta Analyst

At the end of matchday 4, Opta gives Arsenal as the favorite to lead the group stage. The 'Gunners' average 20.22 points, followed by Bayern (19.49), Manchester City (17.87), and Liverpool (17.22). Further back are Inter Milan (16.822), PSG (16.40), Real Madrid (16.24), and Newcastle (14.96)

Barça appears just below the 'magpies', with 14.80 points. Goal difference is key to determining the position between teams with the same number of points. The Catalans, thanks to the thrashing against **Olympiacos**, maintain a +5, with 12 goals for and 7 against.In that sense, the calendar favors the Blaugrana interests. **None of their next rivals are currently in the TOP-8** and two of them (Slavia and Copenhagen) are in elimination zones (positions 25 to 36).

However, when it comes to the title, **Catalan options have dropped to just 4.93%**. Before the start of the group stage, Opta gave Barça an 8.51% chance of winning the Champions League. Arsenal is, at this point, the favorite with a 22.86% chance of lifting the trophy

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