These are the favorites to win the Champions League according to Opta: Barça's chances decrease

FC Barcelona's victory against Eintracht Frankfurt (2-1) did not improve the Catalan team's chances of advancing to the round of 16 while avoiding the playoffs in February. At least not according to the predictive system of FC Barcelona, which at the halfway point of matchday 6 of the group stage places Barça as the tenth-ranked team at the end of the first phase.

Hansi Flick's team, after their victory on Tuesday at the Spotify Camp Nou, occupy fourteenth place in the standings with 10 points and a goal difference of +3. According to Opta's analysis, the Catalan team would finish the league phase in 10th place, with a total of 14.54 expected points

Barça's Accounts to Get into the Champions League TOP-8

In theory, Barça should reach the 16-point mark by beating **Slavia Prague and Copenhagen** in the last two matchdays. However, they would have to wait for the rest of the results and goal difference to see if that is enough for the Catalans to qualify directly for the round of 16 as part of the TOP-8 for the second consecutive season.In 24/25, Flick's team finished the league stage with 19 points in second place in the table. Aston Villa was eighth with 16 points, but this season the outlook points to a higher number of points (17) as the minimum necessary to secure a spot in the top eight positions

Otherwise, to get into the TOP-8 with 16 units, a large goal difference (of 5 or more goals) would be needed. For now, four teams are ahead of Barça despite having 10 points due to a better *goal average*. Two of them (Dortmund and Manchester City) could reach 13 points if they win this Wednesday.

Opta keeps Barcelona as fifth favorite for the title

Opta Prediction - Champions League group stage 25/26. Source: Opta Analyst

Opta's Supercomputer, despite 'condemning' Barcelona to the Europa League knockout stage, still ranks Barcelona as the fifth favorite to win the title on May 30, 2026, at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest.

According to Opta's predictions, the Catalan team has a 6.85% chance of winning the Champions League, behind Arsenal (21.74%), Bayern Munich (17.95%), Paris Saint-Germain (13.24%), and Manchester City (10.07%).

Clubs like Real Madrid have fewer options than Barça to win the European Cup in 2026, although the 'Merengues' would advance to the round of 16 in fourth place in the league stage. Madrid appears behind the Catalans, with a 5.04% chance of winning the title, followed by Liverpool (5.03%).

No other club, at the moment, exceeds a 5% probability of winning the 'big ears' in 2026. Chelsea (3.04%), Inter Milan (2.99%), and Borussia Dortmund (2.87%) complete the TOP-10 candidates to win the 25/26 Champions League, according to Opta's forecasts.

The 8 qualified teams for the Champions League TOP-8, according to Opta

In matchday 6, Opta gives Arsenal as the favorite to lead the group stage. The 'Gunners' average 21.60 points, followed by Bayern (19.23), PSG (17.45), and Real Madrid (16.91). Further back are Atalanta (16.07), Liverpool (15.97), Manchester City (15.93), and Atlético de Madrid (15.84).

Barça is in 10th place, with 14.54 points, just behind Dortmund (15.09). Goal difference is key to determining the position between teams with the same number of points. The Catalans, after the victory against Olympiacos, maintain a +3, with 14 goals for and 11 against.

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