Opta prediction - Champions League group stage 25/26. Source: Opta Analyst

Published New:10/12/2025 - 17:10h

Updated New:13/12/2025 - 16:02h

Opta's supercomputer, in its latest analysis of the UEFA Champions League, maintains Barcelona as the fifth favorite to win the title. The Catalan club has a 6.22% chance of lifting the trophy in Budapest

FC Barcelona's victory over Eintracht Frankfurt (2-1) did not improve the Blaugrana squad's odds of advancing to the Round of 16 while avoiding the play-offs in February. At least not according to the Opta Supercomputer's predictive system, which, halfway through Matchday 6 of the league phase, places Barça as the ninth-place finisher at the end of the first stage.

Hansi Flick's men, following their Tuesday victory at the Spotify Camp Nou, occupy the 15th spot in the standings with 10 points and a +3 goal difference. According to Opta's analysis, the Catalan team would finish the league phase in 9th place, with a total of 14.53 expected points.

Barça's math to break into the Champions League Top 8

In theory, Barça should reach the 16-point threshold by beating Slavia Prague and Copenhagen in the final two matchdays. However, they would have to wait for other results and goal differences to see if it is enough for the Culés to qualify directly for the Round of 16 as part of the Top 8 for the second consecutive season.

In the 24/25 season, Flick's side finished the league phase with 19 points in second place in the table. Aston Villa was eighth with 16 points, but this season the outlook points to a higher minimum number of points (17) needed to secure a spot in the top eight rungs.

Alternatively, to get into the Top 8 with 16 points, a significant goal difference (of 5 or more goals) would be required. At the moment, four teams are ahead of Barça despite having 10 points due to a better goal difference. Two of them (Dortmund and Manchester City) could reach 13 points if they win this Wednesday.

Opta keeps Barcelona as fifth favorite for the title

Opta Prediction - Champions League 25/26 league phase. Source: Opta Analyst

The Opta Supercomputer, despite 'condemning' Barcelona to the Round of 16 play-offs, keeps Barcelona as the fifth candidate to take the title on May 30, 2026, at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest.

According to Opta's predictions, the Blaugrana squad has a 6.22% probability of winning the Champions League, behind Arsenal (22.95%), Bayern Munich (17.98%), Paris Saint-Germain (13.85%), and Manchester City (10.87%).

Clubs like Real Madrid have lower odds than Barça of winning the European Cup in 2026, even though the 'Merengues' would advance to the Round of 16 in fourth place in the league phase. Madrid appears behind the Culés, with a 4.63% chance at the title, trailing Liverpool (4.93%).

No other club, for the moment, exceeds a 5% probability of winning the trophy in 2026. Chelsea (2.97%), Inter Milan (2.96%), and Borussia Dortmund (2.22%) complete the Top 10 candidates to win the 25/26 Champions League, according to Opta's forecasts.

The 8 qualifiers for the Champions League Top 8, according to Opta

On Matchday 6, Opta tips Arsenal as the favorite to top the league phase. The 'Gunners' average 22.45 points, followed by Bayern (19.21), Manchester City (17.41), PSG (16.62), and Atalanta (16.05). Further back appear Liverpool (15.99), Atlético de Madrid (15.86), and Real Madrid (15.64).

Barça appears in 9th place, with 14.53 points, just ahead of Inter (14.27). Goal difference is key to determining position between teams with the same number of points. The Culés, after the victory against Eintracht, maintain a +3, with 14 goals for and 11 against.