Barça on the lookout: What result from the Madrid derby is most favorable?

Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid will face off this Saturday at the Santiago Bernabéu (21:00 h) in the match of the day 23 of LaLiga EA Sports 2024-25, with FC Barcelona closely watching the result of the derby to get closer to the top of the tournament. Barça has closed the gap with the 'merengues' and 'colchoneros' after the defeat of 'La Casa Blanca' last week against Espanyol (1-0) and Atlético's draw a week earlier against Villarreal (1-1).

Diego Simeone's team also stumbled in matchday 20 at Butarque (1-0), but the team led by Hansi Flick could only manage a draw that week against Getafe (0-0). The last Madrid derby ended in a draw (1-1) at the Metropolitano thanks to a last-minute goal from Ángel Correa in the 90+5'. The same happened in the derby played at the Bernabéu in February 2024 (1-1), where Marcos Llorente prevented the 'rojiblanco' fall with a goal in the 90+3'.

In fact, Real Madrid has not defeated their neighbors in La Liga since September 18, 2022 (1-2 at the Metropolitano). And, at Chamartín, the last 'merengue' victory dates back to December 12, 2021 (2-0), being this the only victory of Carlo Ancelotti against Atlético at home in the tournament over five seasons (1 win, 2 losses, and 2 draws).

Barça can be 'in striking distance' of the lead with a draw in the Madrid derby

In this sense, a draw is undoubtedly the result that most favors Barça's interests. The culés will reach 48 points if they defeat Sevilla on Sunday at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (21:00 h), while Real and Atlético will have 50 and 49 points, respectively, in case of a tie at the Santiago Bernabéu. On the contrary, a 'merengue' victory will allow Carlo Ancelotti's team to maintain a four-point lead over the Catalan team.

However, a white or 'colchonero' victory is not entirely bad for Barcelona, as long as they win in Sevilla. If Atlético loses, they will be tied with Barça in second place with 48 points, but the goal difference favors the Catalans. Similarly, if Real were to lose, the gap with the azulgranas would be reduced to just 1 point, while Atlético would lead with 2 and 3 points ahead of their pursuers. With 15 matchdays left, the championship will be more open than ever after the Madrid derby. 

Here are the last 5 derbies between Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid in La Liga

1. September 29, 2024: Atlético de Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid, at the Metropolitano. Goals: 0-1, Militao (min. 64); 1-1, Correa (min. 90+5).
2. February 4, 2024: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético de Madrid, at the Santiago Bernabéu. Goals: 1-0, Brahim (min. 20); 1-1, Llorente (min. 90+3).
3. September 24, 2023: Atlético de Madrid 3-1 Real Madrid, at the Metropolitano. Goals: 1-0, Morata (min. 4); 2-0, Griezmann (min. 18); 2-1, Toni Kroos (min. 35); 3-1, Morata (min. 46).
4. February 25, 2023: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético de Madrid, at the Santiago Bernabéu. Goals: 0-1, Giménez (min. 78), 1-1, Álvaro Rodríguez (min. 85).
5. September 18, 2022: Atlético de Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid, at the Metropolitano. Goals: 0-1, Rodrygo (min 18); 0-2, Valverde (min. 36); 1-2, Mario Hermoso (min. 83).