CIES Gives Real Madrid Advantage Over Barcelona in LaLiga 25/26

Despite being, by far, the best Spanish team at the moment, after sweeping last season with the three titles in dispute (League, Cup and Super Cup), FC Barcelona is not the favorite to revalidate the league title in 2025/26. At least not for the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES).

The center specialized in sports research sees Real Madrid as the main favorite in the Spanish First Division, with a 40.6% chance of being champion in May 2026. The 'Casa Blanca' was also considered a great candidate last season by various specialized portals, but finally it was Barça who took the honors.

According to CIES, the team led by Hansi Flick would be the second contender in LaLiga, with a 29.6% chance of revalidating their crown. That is, the center gives Real Madrid an advantage of 11 percentage points over the culé team.

CIES Forgets Barça's Overwhelming Dominance Over Real Madrid in 24/25

Ferran Torres during the final of the Copa del Rey 24/25: Barça 3-2 Real Madrid.

A difficult prediction to justify, considering that, the previous season, Barça crushed the 'merengue' team in the four Clásicos played in League, Cup and Super Cup. The azulgranas won by a landslide in the final of the Spanish Super Cup (2-5) and, in addition, they kept the Copa del Rey in La Cartuja (3-2).

By League, Barça also dominated the one-on-one, with a thrashing in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabéu (0-4) and another victory in Montjuïc (4-3), a match that the culés started losing by 0-2 in the initial quarter of an hour.

The balance in Clásicos was four Catalan victories, with 16 goals in favor and 7 against. In the League, Flick's team secured the title on matchday 36 and closed the season with 88 points, 4 more than Madrid. In mid-January, the whites had a 7-point advantage in the lead.

Even so, CIES forgets these antecedents and puts Real Madrid above Barcelona in their probabilities for the title. The 'merengues', for now, have 9 points in 3 matchdays, a couple more than the culés (7).

Atlético, third candidate for the League title according to CIES

Behind Barça, CIES puts Atlético de Madrid as the third favorite in LaLiga 25/26. The center gives the 'colchoneros' a 22.1% chance of being champion, only 7.5 percentage points less than the azulgrana team.

Diego Simeone's team has only added two draws in the first three matchdays, but this does not reduce their chances of winning what would be the first 'rojiblanca' League since 2021. Athletic Club and Real Sociedad appear much further behind.

Predictions of the International Centre for Sports Studies (CIES) for LaLiga 25/26:

1. Real Madrid: 40.6 %
2. FC Barcelona: 29: 6 %
3. Atlético de Madrid: 22.1 %
4. Athletic Club: 3 %
5. Real Sociedad: 1.5 %

According to CIES, its statistical model